Testing heterogeneity within the euro area.

This note estimates several constrained versions of an optimization-based multi-country model to test the sources of heterogeneity within the euro area. We show that the main source is the asymmetry of shocks affecting the economies and that the heterogeneity of behaviors does not seem to be of empirical relevance for the euro area.Euro area ; Heterogeneity ; Bayesian econometrics ; Multi-country model.

Optimal Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area with Cross-country Heterogeneity.

This paper investigates the implications of cross-country heterogeneity within the euro area for the design of optimal monetary policy. We build an optimizing-based multi-country model (MCM) describing the euro area in which differences between structural parameters across countries are allowed. Using Bayesian techniques, we estimate the MCM and its area-wide counterpart (AWM). We then question which model is the most appropriate for monetary policy purposes. Several results emerge. First, using an AWM induces relatively large and significant welfare losses. Second, this is not the use of a rule based on aggregated variables that is costly in terms of welfare, but rather the use of a sub-optimal forecasting model. Third, allowing for habit on consumption has important implications for the dynamics of models but taking into account difference in price indexation has more drastic effects on welfare losses.Euro area ; Heterogeneity ; Optimal monetary policy ; Bayesian econometrics.

J005 Genetic and non-genetic forms of aneurysms of the human ascending aorta share activation and overexpression of Smad2: putative implication of epigenetic mechanisms

Ascending aortic aneurysm (AscAA) development proceeds by multifactorial and chronic processes affecting both vascular extracellular matrix structure and integrity and smooth muscle cell (SMC) survival. These features are associated with all types of AscAA: i) genetic forms associated with mutations in FBN1, TGFBR1 or TGFBR2 (Marfan syndrome (MFS) and Loeys-Dietz syndrome (LDS)), ii) aneurysms associated with bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) or iii) degenerative forms. However, the relation between the genotypic variability and the unique aortic phenotype remains unexplained. The common matrix perturbations suggest similar cell dysfunction in both genetic and non-genetic AscAA. In this context, it has been recently proposed that TGF-β1 plays a predominant role in AscAA. Here we investigate TGF-β1 and its intracellular mediator Smad signaling pathway using tissue extracts and cultured SMCs from the media of genetic and non-genetic forms of AscAA. We show an increased activation of Smad2 (phosphorylated-Smad2) and an increased amount of TGF-β1 in AscAA. However, biochemical and histological studies demonstrated an enhancement of TGF-β1 retention within the extracellular matrix but not in its expression and activation, and thus highlight independent dysregulation of TGF-β1 retention and Smad2 signaling in genetic and non-genetic aneurysms. The constitutive Smad2 activation is independent of the extracellular TGF-β1 as well as of TGF-β receptor functionality. Aneurysms bearing TGFBR2 mutations, which induce loss of function, present constitutive Smad2 activation. Moreover, increased Smad2 expression is observed in tissue extracts but also in cultured SMC extracts, where the overexpression is surprisingly maintained during several passages, in AscAA. The study of adventitial fibroblasts shows that Smad2 perturbations are specific to SMCs from the media of aneurysmal aortic wall. A putative regulation of Smad2 expression by epigenetic mechanisms (histone acetylation and/or DNA methylation) is tested. Preliminary results show decreased Smad2 expression induced by deacetylase and methylase inhibitors in aneurysmal SMCs. In contrast, Smad2 expression, in control SMCs, is not affected by these treatments. The constitutive and tissuespecific activation of Smad2 and its maintained expression suggest an implication of epigenetic mechanisms in the development of genetic and non-genetic AscAA

Impact of an interatrial shunt device on survival and heart failure hospitalization in patients with preserved ejection fraction

Aims: Impaired left ventricular diastolic function leading to elevated left atrial pressures, particularly during exertion, is a key driver of symptoms and outcomes in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Insertion of an interatrial shunt device (IASD) to reduce left atrial pressure in HFpEF has been shown to be associated with short‐term haemodynamic and symptomatic benefit. We aimed to investigate the potential effects of IASD placement on HFpEF survival and heart failure hospitalization (HFH). Methods and results: Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction patients participating in the Reduce Elevated Left Atrial Pressure in Patients with Heart Failure study (Corvia Medical) of an IASD were followed for a median duration of 739 days. The theoretical impact of IASD implantation on HFpEF mortality was investigated by comparing the observed survival of the study cohort with the survival predicted from baseline data using the Meta‐analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure heart failure risk survival score. Baseline and post‐IASD implant parameters associated with HFH were also investigated. Based upon the individual baseline demographic and cardiovascular profile of the study cohort, the Meta‐analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure score‐predicted mortality was 10.2/100 pt years. The observed mortality rate of the IASD‐treated cohort was 3.4/100 pt years, representing a 33% lower rate (P = 0.02). By Kaplan–Meier analysis, the observed survival in IASD patients was greater than predicted (P = 0.014). Baseline parameters were not predictive of future HFH events; however, poorer exercise tolerance and a higher workload‐corrected exercise pulmonary capillary wedge pressure at the 6 months post‐IASD study were associated with HFH. Conclusions: The current study suggests IASD implantation may be associated with a reduction in mortality in HFpEF. Large‐scale ongoing randomized studies are required to confirm the potential benefit of this therapy

Univariate and multivariate GARCH models applied to the CARBS indices

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to estimate the calibrated parameters of different univariate and multivariate GARCH family models. It is unrealistic to assume that volatility of financial returns is constant. In the empirical analysis, the symmetric GARCH, and asymmetric GJR-GARCH and EGARCH models were estimated for the CARBS indices and a global minimum variance portfolio (GMVP), the best fitting model was determined using the AIC and BIC. The asymmetric terms of the GJR-GARCH and EGARCH models indicate signs of the leverage effect. The information criterion suggest that the EGARCH model is the best fitting model for the CARBS indices and the GMVP

A Closed-Form Solution of the Multi-Period Portfolio Choice Problem for a Quadratic Utility Function

In the present paper, we derive a closed-form solution of the multi-period portfolio choice problem for a quadratic utility function with and without a riskless asset. All results are derived under weak conditions on the asset returns. No assumption on the correlation structure between different time points is needed and no assumption on the distribution is imposed. All expressions are presented in terms of the conditional mean vectors and the conditional covariance matrices. If the multivariate process of the asset returns is independent it is shown that in the case without a riskless asset the solution is presented as a sequence of optimal portfolio weights obtained by solving the single-period Markowitz optimization problem. The process dynamics are included only in the shape parameter of the utility function. If a riskless asset is present then the multi-period optimal portfolio weights are proportional to the single-period solutions multiplied by time-varying constants which are depending on the process dynamics. Remarkably, in the case of a portfolio selection with the tangency portfolio the multi-period solution coincides with the sequence of the simple-period solutions. Finally, we compare the suggested strategies with existing multi-period portfolio allocation methods for real data.Comment: 38 pages, 9 figures, 3 tables, changes: VAR(1)-CCC-GARCH(1,1) process dynamics and the analysis of increasing horizon are included in the simulation study, under revision in Annals of Operations Researc

Assessing and grading congestion in acute heart failure: a scientific statement from the acute heart failure committee of the heart failure association of the European society of cardiology and endorsed by the European society of intensive care medicine

Patients with acute heart failure (AHF) require urgent in-hospital treatment for relief of symptoms. The main reason for hospitalization is congestion, rather than low cardiac output. Although congestion is associated with a poor prognosis, many patients are discharged with persistent signs and symptoms of congestion and/or a high left ventricular filling pressure. Available data suggest that a pre-discharge clinical assessment of congestion is often not performed, and even when it is performed, it is not done systematically because no method to assess congestion prior to discharge has been validated. Grading congestion would be helpful for initiating and following response to therapy. We have reviewed a variety of strategies to assess congestion which should be considered in the care of patients admitted with HF. We propose a combination of available measurements of congestion. Key elements in the measurement of congestion include bedside assessment, laboratory analysis, and dynamic manoeuvres. These strategies expand by suggesting a routine assessment of congestion and a pre-discharge scoring system. A point system is used to quantify the degree of congestion. This score offers a new instrument to direct both current and investigational therapies designed to optimize volume status during and after hospitalization. In conclusion, this document reviews the available methods of evaluating congestion, provides suggestions on how to properly perform these measurements, and proposes a method to quantify the amount of congestion presen